A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that split the country and caused disorder, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the political, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the shortage of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each authors two essays that strive for impartiality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover identity markers, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he said. "One side will succeed here and somebody will in the end lose but both parties has has important lessons to acquire from the opposing positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, said the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
